rewind.
On 3 November 1948, early editions of the Chicago Daily Tribune boldly declared, ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’. With votes still being counted, little faith was placed in the re-election of Harry S. Truman, the incumbent president. His approval rate was down to 36 per cent before the campaign even started, and he did not represent the expected nominee for the Democratic Party. Yet, against all odds, Truman triumphed in a stunning and decisive victory over all his opponents. The 1948 U.S. presidential election is widely regarded as one of the most surprising political upsets in American history—but why did Truman win?
Party Values
Contextually, the 1948 election unfolded during a period of profound shifts in American political identity. Both major parties, the Democrats and Republicans, were grappling with evolving platforms and ideological transformations. Traditional political allegiances were breaking down, and the Democratic Party, under Truman’s leadership, was distancing itself from its old associations with the Confederacy and Southern conservatism. Both these parties seemed unsure of their exact direction, but Truman, firmly anchored in his values, knew where he stood.
Truman’s commitment to civil rights and his vision for the future of the nation set him apart. He championed early advancements in civil rights and advocated for his ambitious Fair Deal, which aimed to address economic inequality, healthcare, and social welfare. Truman wasn’t just running for re-election; he was running to implement a vision he believed in deeply. His decisive actions, grounded in these progressive ideals, shaped the direction of the Democratic Party in this election, despite the national uncertainty. Ultimately, Truman’s unwavering commitment to his principles resonated with voters and laid the groundwork for the party’s future. His campaign wasn’t just about winning – it was about standing up for the future he believed in.
The Opposition
Thomas E. Dewey, the progressive Republican governor of New York, was Truman's main opponent in the 1948 election. Known for his Harvard education and steady political demeanour, Dewey was seen as a safe and pragmatic choice. His campaign capitalised on his presumed popularity with African American leaders, bolstered by the Republican support for anti-poll tax and anti-lynching legislation, which positioned him as a challenger to the Democrats on civil rights issues. This stance was expected to give him significant backing, especially from Black voters, a demographic Truman was working hard to court. In the months leading up to the election, Dewey appeared to be in control.
His campaign focused on caution and avoiding controversy, with polls consistently showing him leading Truman by a wide margin. However, Dewey’s failure stemmed from his overly cautious strategy. He relied too heavily on his polling lead and failed to engage voters effectively, leaving him vulnerable. This lack of enthusiasm was compounded by uncertainty over his stance on racial issues. Statistics can be drawn upon to demonstrate how public opinion was divided: 20 per cent believed he supported federal civil rights legislation, 24 per cent felt he would leave the matter to the states, and another 20 per cent thought he opposed both federal and state action. Dewey's failure to clarify his position left a critical opening for Truman, who worked tirelessly to energise his base and solidify his commitment to civil rights.
Truman’s Campaign Strategy
Truman launched an aggressive whistle-stop campaign which was inspiring and energetic by design. Travelling completely by train, Truman crisscrossed the country, speaking directly to the American people in a manner designed to resonate with their concerns about the nation’s future. This approach was not merely about political rhetoric but about forging an emotional connection with the electorate. By addressing them as “human beings with real needs and feelings and fears,” Truman effectively positioned himself as a champion of the working class, elevating his image as a leader who truly understood the struggles of ordinary Americans.
The effectiveness of Truman's campaign lay in the raw, impassioned tone of his speeches. Though he was not known for his oratory skills, he compensated for this with his unrelenting fury against the status quo. His fiery rhetoric, coupled with an unequivocal assault on the Republican-controlled Congress, which he famously denounced as the “do-nothing Congress”, struck a chord with a public increasingly frustrated by political gridlock. Truman’s critiques were more than just personal attacks; they reflected a broader dissatisfaction with the Republican agenda and a clear vision for the future that would benefit working-class Americans.
Truman’s victory in 1948 highlighted the power of authenticity and direct engagement with the electorate. His ability to overcome a significant approval deficit and an uphill battle against a complacent opponent speaks to his political acumen and determination. While Dewey’s cautious approach failed to invite voters in, Truman’s fiery speeches and dedication to his ideals resonated deeply, particularly with those who felt disconnected from the political elite. Ultimately, Truman's win was a triumph of grassroots campaigning and a testament to the enduring strength of leadership that remains true to its values, even in the face of overwhelming odds.
Bibliography
Primary Sources
Truman, Harry S., Memoirs by Harry S. Truman: Years of Trial and Hope (New York: Doubleday, 1956)
Secondary Sources
Sitkoff, Harvard, ‘Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming Age of Civil Rights in American Politics’, The Journal of Southern Politics, Vol.37, No.4 (1971), pp. 597-616
Topping, Simon, ‘“Never Argue with the Gallup Poll”: Thomas Dewey, Civil Rights and the Election of 1948’, Journal of American Studies, Vol.38, No.2 (2004), pp. 179-198